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Saturday, March 19, 2011

The quarter-final scenarios

With Pakistan's win in the last match of Group A, the standings in that group are clear: Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Australia and New Zealand, in that order. Only one meaningful match remains in Group B, between India and West Indies in Chennai. Here's a look at the quarter-final line-ups depending on who wins that game.
Scenario 1: If India beat West Indies
India will take second place, behind South Africa, on nine points, while England will be third and West Indies fourth. West Indies will finish with the same points as Bangladesh, but they are so far ahead on net run-rate that Bangladesh cannot catch up even if West Indies lose by a huge margin. The quarter-finals:

Pakistan v West Indies - Mirpur
Australia v India - Ahmedabad (March 24)
New Zealand v South Africa - Mirpur
Sri Lanka v England - Colombo (March 26)
Scenario 2: If West Indies beat India

In this case West Indies will jump to second place, behind South Africa, pushing India and England to third and fourth place. India will retain third place unless they lose very badly (for example, if they get bowled out for 139 or fewer chasing 300). The quarter-finals:

New Zealand v South Africa
Sri Lanka v India - Ahmedabad (March 24)
Australia v West Indies
Pakistan v England
Scenario 3: if the points are shared

If both teams get a point each, India will take second spot with eight points, behind South Africa's ten. West Indies and England will be on seven points each, but West Indies have the better run-rate, and it'll stay that way if the points are shared. The quarter-finals:

Pakistan v England - Mirpur
Australia v India - Ahmedabad (March 24)
New Zealand v South Africa - Mirpur
Sri Lanka v West Indies - Colombo (March 26)

In each case, the winners of the first two quarters listed above will play in one semi-final, while the winners of the last two quarters will play in the other, with India playing in Mohali if they make it, and Sri Lanka playing in Colombo. 

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